How Will Climate Change Affect the Isaan Region?

Climate change affects the whole planet, but it will affect countries and regions differently. In some northern hemisphere parts of the world, the short-term local effects from climate change might not seem so bad. A warmer climate could expand the amount of arable land in Russia and Canada.

Thailand, on the other hand, is already experiencing negative effects from climate change in the form of increased risks and increased severity of flood hazards, warming seas and rising sea levels.

What about Thailand’s northeast region? What will climate change mean for Isaan?

Isaan is dominated by agricultural land. Much of the Isaan region has been known in the past more for drought r than floods. But, notably, during 2024 the Isaan region experienced some of its worst floods ever recorded(1), including the effects from multiple seasonal typhoons and a bursting of the Mekhong river from its banks, which affected multiple Isaan provinces.

1. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/2421888/ubon-floods-worst-in-history

The meteorological and hydrological records for the Isaan region are managed by the Thai Meteorological Department (https://www.tmd.go.th/). A study published in the Journal of Atmospheric Research by two Thai authors using Thai Meteorological Department data dating back to 1955, found that rain storms had become less frequent but more intensive over time.

Another effect from the global greenhouse effect for Isaan is potential changes to the timing of the wet and dry seasons. Each year, farmers need to make a difficult choice of timing the planting and harvesting of their crops. A local farmer I spoke to compared these decisions to gambling. Act too quickly or too slowly and an individual farmer could experience devastating losses.

A survey conducted by UN University predicted that farmers in Khon Kaen province will face 10% decrease in rice yields across the province due to flooding and drought.(2) Many other meteorological and agricultural studies for the region come to similar conclusions. Adaptation is key. Diversification, adapting to changes in seasonal timing and higher temperatures will be important so that farmers are not just gambling but also hedging and protecting their investments. Some versatile farmers may even find ways to leverage advantage from expected increases in annual rainfall for the region. Public investment for the common good will also become inreaingly important in the region, especially for disaster risk reduction and water management.

More studies are needed, but uncertainties in modelling local climate and the effects from climate change are inevitable. For places like Isaan where agriculture is the heart of the local economy, the annual gamble may becoming more difficult than ever. Thus, Isaan people have as much at stake as anyone in the world from reducing our carbon footprints.

2. https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/climate-change-adaptation-for-thailands-rice-farmers